Junior Mason Dwek predicts a potential outcome of the upcoming election based on current poll data. He argues Harris’s lead in a deep-red state like Iowa could mean swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are leaning her way. Photos by Nikolas Liepins (left) and Jay Deegan (right), courtesy of the National Scholastic Press Association.

In just over 24 hours, millions of poll sites will close for the last time on Tuesday, Nov. 5, at seven p.m. as millions finish voting for their pick for President of the United States. When the machines count their vote, Kamala Harris will become the next President of the United States.

A new poll conducted by the Des Moines Register has Harris up 49-46. This should be a clear indication to voters that Harris will win. The election will come down to the seven swing states: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. A swing state is one that could go either red or blue, unlike California or Texas, which will practically always go blue and red (at least in this day and age). Typically, I would be against calling North Carolina a swing state, but after the Iowa poll, I doubt that the former President will win North Carolina.

He is struggling with the moderate Republicans, a group he severely needs to win the presidency. The last time a Democrat won Iowa was former President Barack Obama. He beat John McCain with 365 electoral votes. Iowa is a very red state, but the apparent support for the Vice President shows she is somehow connected to the moderate Republicans. Trump won by nearly 60% in the Republican primary against moderate to non-Trump candidates Ron DeSantis & Nikki Haley, emphasizing that it leans more far right. Because Harris is up three in this state, it indicates those flip states potentially are experiencing the same thing. If she’s doing well in a very red state, she must be doing well in Wisconsin, Michigan, and the one she needs to win: Pennsylvania. Since 1992, those have voted as a block. 

Additionally, states with more moderate Republicans, like North Carolina, don’t look too shabby for her anymore. The Iowa poll was a clear indication of how this election could turn out. From a Republican perspective, Harris was a poorly-regarded vice president under a poorly-regarded president. Considering she is winning in a hard-core conservative race, it is a good sign for the Harris campaign that will potentially cause a chain reaction nationwide. Thus, Kamala Harris will be elected President of the United States.